Association of age with clinical progression across plasma p-tau217 levels

BACKGROUND: Chronological age and plasma p-tau217 each predicts cognitive decline, but whether their prognostic associations interact is unclear. In this study, we examined their joint associations in a memory-clinic cohort. METHODS: We included 3,741 participants from the Pittsburgh ADRC, with up to 28 years of follow-up (3.0 [IQR 2.0-6.0]). The primary outcome was increase in Clinical Dementia Rating global score (CDR-GS). Secondary outcomes included clinical-stage progression and longitudinal change in CDR Sum of Boxes. Plasma p-tau217 cut-off value was derived and externally validated in amyloid-beta-PET and autopsy sub-cohorts, respectively. Cox proportional hazards and linear mixed-effects models tested age-by-p-tau217 interactions while repeated cross-validation evaluated prognostic performance. RESULTS: Age and plasma p-tau217 interacted in their associations with CDR-GS progression ({chi}(1)2 = 23.94; p=9.81x10-7). Comparing the oldest displayed age with the youngest reference age, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was 4.80 (95% CI 2.74-8.27) in the lowest vs. 1.05 (95% CI 0.69-1.47) in the highest p-tau217 quartile. Older age was associated with clinical progression at low-p-tau217 (HR=1.97; 95% CI 1.58-2.45) but not at high-p-tau217 (HR=1.10; 95% CI 0.95-1.26) concentrations; adjusted 5-year risk differences were 19.3 and 3.3 percentage points, respectively. Adding plasma p-tau217 improved 5-year discrimination most accurately among participants younger than 60 years (AUC 0.66-0.81). DISCUSSION: Prognostic association between age and clinical progression varies by plasma p-tau217 concentration. Age stratifies risk at low plasma p-tau217 levels, whereas elevated p-tau217 identifies higher risk across age groups and attenuates the age-related gradient. These findings support further evaluation of age-contextualized plasma p-tau217 interpretation for prognosis and trial enrichment.