Interpretable Symptom-Based Machine Learning for Parkinson's Disease Prediction: A Feasibility Study

Background: Parkinson's disease (PD) has a prolonged prodromal phase during which non-motor symptoms (NMS) may emerge years before the appearance of classical motor signs. This makes NMS a promising and clinically accessible source of information for early risk stratification. Objective: In this study, we investigated whether NMS alone can serve as reliable predictors of PD risk using clinical data from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) cohort. Methods: We developed a stacked ensemble machine learning framework that integrates feature-level modelling, a global multivariate model, and a patient-similarity component to capture complementary patterns within NMS profiles. The model was trained using leakage-controlled patient-level validation and evaluated on an independent held-out test set. Results: The final ensemble achieved strong predictive performance, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.955, sensitivity of 0.929, and specificity of 0.900. Explainability analys