Age-corrected model for predicting pupil diameter in real-world conditions from melanopic equivalent daylight illuminance

Purpose: Pupil diameter in daily life depends on both the light reaching the eye and the observer's age, but established prediction formulas require laboratory quantities that are rarely measured in natural environments. We developed a compact age-corrected model that predicts pupil diameter from melanopic equivalent daylight illuminance (mEDI). Methods: We used an existing field dataset in which binocular pupil diameter and near-corneal spectral irradiance were recorded while 83 adults aged 18-87 years moved through indoor and outdoor environments. The analysis included 10,082 valid paired observations. We fitted a bounded sigmoid relating pupil diameter to mEDI and age, with each participant given equal influence, and assessed prediction in participants excluded from model fitting. Performance was compared with simpler models, a flexible generalised additive model (GAM), and Watson-Yellott predictions based on assumed field geometry. Results: Pupil diameter decreased smoothly as mEDI increased. Age primarily reduced the difference between pupils in dim and bright conditions, by 0.768 mm per decade, while the predicted bright-light diameter changed little with age. In held-out participants, the bounded model had a participant-balanced root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.630 mm and mean absolute error of 0.537 mm. The GAM had a slightly lower point-estimate RMSE of 0.610 mm, but the difference was small and uncertain. The bounded model outperformed the tested log-linear, reduced, age-only, and Watson-Yellott alternatives. Conclusion: Age and mEDI are sufficient to provide useful population-average pupil predictions across the observed adult age and real-world light range. The model is transparent, physiologically bounded, and nearly as accurate as a flexible GAM, but predictions approaching darkness remain uncertain because valid mEDI measurements were not available in that range.