An explainable machine learning consensus framework for robust estimations of environmental effects on population dynamics

Explainable machine learning (ML) methods are gaining increasing attention in environmental and ecological research for their ability to reveal relationships between environmental drivers and population dynamics. However, there remain questions on the reliability of these tools, especially given recent research shows that these explanations can be highly sensitive to model architecture. In ecology, it is typical to use a single ML model, and a comparative evaluation of sensitivity of explainability for different ML approaches is overlooked. In this paper, we develop a novel framework that quantifies explanation consistency between multiple ML model architectures. This framework provides a discrepancy measure for each model prediction, with high discrepancy indicating substantive explanation disagreement across models and low discrepancy indicating strong consensus in explanations across models. We then demonstrate that low explanation discrepancy aligns well with ground truth mechanism