Post-Training Shifts Confidence: A Three-Stage Analysis of How SFT, RL, and OPD Shape Pre-, Intra-, and Post-CoT Calibration

Large language models have made strong reasoning gains through supervised fine-tuning, reinforcement learning, and on-policy distillation, yet these post-training methods are usually evaluated only by final-answer accuracy. We study how they reshape confidence during reasoning. We introduce a three-...