Predicting Substance Use and Psychotic-Like Experiences in Adolescents

Adolescence is a critical developmental window for the emergence of substance use and psychosis-spectrum symptoms, yet early risk for these outcomes remains poorly understood. Using longitudinal data from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study (n=10,134), we tested whether demographic, clinical, and structural and functional neuroimaging measures assessed in childhood (mean baseline age=9.96 years) predict later adolescent substance use, psychotic-like experiences, and/or their co-occurrence. Multivariate machine learning models reliably predicted later emergence of psychotic-like experiences (AUROC=0.780) and their co-occurrence with substance use (AUROC= 0.828), as well as substance use on its own (AUROC=0.626). Distinct patterns of functional brain connectivity, task-related brain activation, demographic, and clinical factors differentiated each outcome. Findings suggest that partially dissociable developmental risk profiles are detectable as early as childhood, and