The Phantom of the PCR: detection and consequences of spurious UMIs in mainstream RNA sequencing

Unique molecular identifiers (UMIs) support digital molecular counting by tagging molecules before amplification, but assume that UMIs are incorporated only during reverse transcription. Residual UMI-bearing oligonucleotides can instead reprime during preamplification PCR, creating "phantom" UMIs on genuine cDNA that inflate counts and evade standard deduplication. We model phantom generation as a two-state branching process and show that it produces a heavy-tailed reads-per- UMI distribution distinct from that of true UMIs. Using this signature, PhantomUMI detects and estimates contamination from clone-size distributions, subject to a coverage-dependent identifiability limit. Across 23 datasets spanning published studies and companion experiments, we find signatures consistent with phantom-UMI generation, including in current 10x GEM-X chemistry. Simulations show that phantoms inflate molecule counts and distort fold-changes. Model-based correction removes average count inflation but does not recover the distorted fold-changes, indicating that phantom UMIs are best prevented experimentally, as implemented in the companion Omega-seq method.